Re: JDK version popularity

From:
Lew <lew@lewscanon.com>
Newsgroups:
comp.lang.java.programmer
Date:
Mon, 22 Mar 2010 11:16:17 -0700 (PDT)
Message-ID:
<acca5b60-5532-485e-b7e4-41a556ab96e0@r27g2000yqn.googlegroups.com>
On Mar 22, 1:52 pm, Thomas Pornin <por...@bolet.org> wrote:

According to Lew <l...@lewscanon.com>:

relatively common for people to stay current with their browser version=

s.

I wish it was more common. According to both what can be seen on:
   http://gs.statcounter.com/
and what we observe at my work on our corporate website, about 11%
of clients still use IE 6, which is far from "current", unless the
client uses Windows 2000 (which cannot have IE 7 or 8). The OS stats
on the same web page rank Windows 2000 at less than 1% of all accesses
(it is in the "other OS" pack, and no higher than Linux). This means
that about 10% of Web users:
 -- use a Windows XP which came with IE 6.0 (i.e. one from before
    early 2007);
 -- have not updated their browser version for the last three years.

It would seem bold to assume that post-2007 Windows users are dutiful
updaters. I would rather assume that at least one third of all Web users
do _not_ "stay current" with their browser versions.

Of course, browser version and JVM version are not the same thing, but I
think that whoever resisted the zealous nagging of Windows for updates
is likely to have resisted the similar hints from the JVM.


11% isn't quite enough to deter me from targeting Java 5, were I
developing for the plugin, particularly since Java WebStart lets one
automate the Java upgrade for the user. If half the folks among that
11% saw enough value in my product to upgrade their Java, that gives
roughly 95% of the available market able to use my product.

Using the real numbers from <http://www.statowl.com/java.php>, and
even assuming that the 20$ unknown are all on Java 1.4 or earlier, an
assumption I should challenge, there's still 75% of the market who can
run my Java 5 product even if they refuse to upgrade.

If half the unknown are already at least on Java 5, and half the rest
would accept an upgrade, that's about 87% of the market.

So for the Java plugin, I deem it safe to target Java 5.

--
Lew

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